Derrick henry stats3/18/2023 ![]() First, we represent each player’s IPA as an unknown variable, then take the EPA of each play from the 2020 NFL season and express it as a point from a normal distribution centered around the summed IPA of every player on the field for that play. IPA is calculated using what’s called a multi-level model. IPA is a modification to EPA which attributes points to individual players, allowing greater individualized statistical focus. To take a deep dive into running back efficiency, and identify if and where Derrick Henry actually underperforms, we turn to Individual Points Added (IPA). However, EPA does not control for the contributions of each player, but aggregates a whole teams’ performance. For example, an unexpected 90 yard touchdown run would yield many expected points added, while a one yard nose dive would add almost none. The prediction tends to be very accurate. ![]() Expected Points is found based on a multinomial logistic regression of variables including current field position and time left on the clock, which predicts the probability of each type of score (Touchdown, Field Goal, Safety). EPA is a metric which represents the value of a single play in a drive, measuring the Expected Points after the play minus the Expected Points before it has occurred. Raw stats alone don’t tell the whole story, and metrics such as Expected Points Added (EPA) can be influenced by offensive line performance, strength of schedule, and game script. However, this is a difficult problem to solve. If we know how effective running backs are when utilized in specific ways, we can assess whether they are utilized correctly. Here, we seek to create a valuation of running backs’ performance on different types of run plays. But did the Titans offense capitalize on Henry’s full potential? Was his success a result of over-utilization? He handled 82% of his team’s carries, the second highest rate in the league- James Robinson, on the injury-ridden Jaguars, was first in that category. And despite his potentially season-ending injury, he currently leads the league in yards through nine weeks of the season with 937 yards – 116 more than second best Jonathan Taylor. He led the league in rushing yards in both 2019 (1540 yards) and 2020 (2027 yards), and is one of only eight players to have eclipsed 2000 rushing yards in a single season. Ask any fan, player, or pundit for a rundown of the top NFL running backs and Tennessee Titan Derrick Henry will inevitably be at the top of the list.
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